From 20–27 October 2026

This week’s bulletin examines the preparation of a new US offensive against Iran a week before the midterms, the first local truce in Ukraine and the Starlink dispute as wartime infrastructure, Israel’s elections with Netanyahu’s continuity at stake, and Ecuador’s governability crisis following the detention of Luisa González and the prison riots of 22 October. It also covers the PCAP’s campaign for a recall referendum on Kast in Chile, Lula’s re-election in Brazil, Machado’s return to Venezuela, the US military deployment in Colombia and Cuba’s permanent power emergency. The analysis is organised around five cross-cutting axes: the electoral calendar as strategic horizon, closed corridors and open prices, tutored transitions, infrastructure as disputed territory, and the Global South as battleground.

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