Trump prepares a new offensive against Iran after the US midterms; Ukraine and Russia agree the first local truce in Oleshky while the Starlink dispute exposes the private dependence of military infrastructure; Israel votes with Netanyahu’s continuity at stake; Ecuador enters a governability crisis after the detention of Luisa González and the prison riots of 22 October; the PCAP launches its campaign for a recall referendum on Kast in Chile; Lula wins in Brazil, Machado returns to Venezuela and the US deploys troops to Colombia. The analysis runs through five axes: electoral calendar, energy corridors, tutored transitions, infrastructure as territory and the Global South in dispute.
